Talking Traffic

One of the more frustrating parts of my day job is when a project requires the calculation of a Benefit/Cost ratio. This ratio is simple in concept: add up all the financial benefits of a project including the projected reductions in congestion, crashes, etc. and divide it by the amortized total cost of the project. This is a tool for evaluating whether a project is worth building. For example, if I’m proposing a project that is going to cost $1 million but it only provides the benefit of $1/2 million than the B/C ratio is 0.5. We’re getting only a 50% return on our investment, therefore don’t build it! Easy, right? Maybe. Let’s talk about where the numbers come from.

Calculating the project cost is the easy part (easy, even if it’s occasionally inaccurate due to unforseen circumstances and rising material prices). Calculating the projected financial benefits of a project can be straightforward, too, if it’s intended as a congestion relief project; there is plenty of documentation concerning reductions in delay time vs. financial benefit. Things are a bit murkier when trying to assemble a financial benefit to projected reductions in collisions because it’s hard to say whether a reduction (or increase) in collision rate is due to a project or not. Lastly, it’s nearly impossible to calculate the benefit (or impact) of a road project on the surrounding business and homes. There are broad overarching assumptions, but they are at best a WAG¹. This is why I cringe every time I’m requested to include a B/C ratio on a project. On non-capacity projects (projects that aren’t adding roadway lanes) it’s very difficult to achieve a B/C ratio of greater than 1.0 which is the assumed benchmark when someone asks for that number.

The reason for all this ramp-up is because of a news report yesterday morning in Atlanta. The Georgia Dept. of Transportation is shutting down all constructions projects (with a few exceptions) within 5 miles of a shopping mall or other retail center from Thursday to Sunday to allow for the Sales Tax holiday that Georgia is having this weekend.

My question, and I admittedly have NO CLUE, is whether the B/C ratio for this proposed work stoppage is greater than 1.0? Sure, there will be less congestion during the weekend, but does this really improve the bottom line for the taxpayer? The contractors are going to figure the cost of a 4 day work stoppage into the project cost, so it might end up at the end that this Tax Holiday congestion relief program will actually cost the state, therefore the taxpayers, more than the congestion would have.

Unfortunately, you’d have to make so many assumptions and WAGs that it’s probably impossible to say with any certainty one way or the other. It’s an interesting thought experiment, though.

Hold the Presses! US Trans Sec has a Blog!: US Transportation Secretary Mary Peters announced that she has a blog now! Call my cynical, but how much “blogging” is really done by the top politicians, rather than their staffers. I may be giving Secretary Peters short shrift here, but I think my point is valid.

Valley Girl Hates Freeways: An LA Blogger discusses the freeway culture.

Texas is Cutting its Highway Maintenance: Through policy decisions, the Texas Department of Transportation is cutting $4.9 Billion from it’s next 10 years of maintenance. Unfortunately, I don’t know what that equates to in terms of percentage per year.

Transportation Improvements due to World Sports: Everyone knows that Beijing is spending uberbucks to get ready for the Olympics. Did you know that Germany spend $15 billion for the World Cup in 2006, and Brazil is building new infrastructure for the 2010 Cup?

Topics: Red Light Enforcement, Red Light Running, Clearance Intervals

 Episode 17 - Red Light Enforcement, Red Light Running, Clearance Intervals [10:35m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Anti-Trust in the Transportation Sector?: If you’re not a net junky like me (and if you weren’t, would you be reading this?) then you might not have heard of Traffic.com, the company responsible for the vast proliferation of Intelligent Transportation Infrastructure throughout some of the nation’s major metro areas. Traffic.com is contracted by these localites under a program called the Transportation Technology Innovation and Demonstration program, a federal earmark that incentivises the placement of radar speed detectors and traffic counters. This is where the various traffic feeds for your cell phone come from. Jerry Werner, formerly of the National Transportation Operations Coalition sent me an email making the case that the contracts awarded to Traffic.com are not in accordance with law; that they are specifically targeted to Traffic.com rather than being competitive as the most recent Highway Act requires. See his information at: The U.S. TTID Program: When Politics, Competition, and the Public Interest Collide and Transportation Technology Innovation and Demonstration Program (TTID): What the Agreements Signed by State and Local Transportation Agencies Show.

Connecticut Looking at Speed Cameras on I-95: They do this in Britain, and some places in the U.S., automating speed enforcement on a major highway. My opinion? This makes sense, but only if the speed is set legitimately. If it’s an arbitrarily low speed, this would be an inappropriate enforcement scheme.

Cash Flow Issues in Texas DOT: Apparently, the lack of funding is hitting even states like Texas, with their massive transportation budget.

Speaking of Politics: Voting against party direction will get you in trouble. This is particularly interesting to me because I work around here.

DATA: The Duluth (MN) Area Trail Alliance: Check out their website.

Member of the Surface Transportation Revenue and Study Commission Speaks Out: Paul Weyrich, a member of the Surface Transportation Revenue and Study Commission, objects to the media coverage of the commission’s recent report (see Traffic Tidbits of 22 Jan 08). He feels that too much emphasis on just one alternative, the fuel tax rise, is drowning out the other good work the commission has completed. I’ll be honest here. I haven’t read the report yet. I was depending on media feeds. I’m going to read it today, though.

I-35 W Bridge Collapse: The fact that the preliminary findings of the NTSB are pointing at design flaws rather than maintenance failure for the I-35W Bridge collapse in 2007 is causing ruffled political feathers.

Ship Obsolescence: The United States maintains a strategic reserve of transport ships in case national emergencies call for bulk carriers. Some of these ships are old, and some are older. When they outlive their operational usefulness, they are broken up for recycling. The gov’t is making some good money in the business right now.

I-95 Going All Data, All the Time: Interstate 95 is one of the nation’s most congested corridors, being hugely important for moving people and goods north and south along the east coast. A new intiative, to provide realtime data to travelers, is under way. Having experienced I-95 in the northeast during some seriously congested times, I would appreciate better information with which to make decisions, for my own use.

Rail Riders in Connecticut: A blog posting concerining the recent release of a commuter rail evaluation in CT. It discusses what is going well, and what can be improved on.

“US Transportation in 2015″: A gaze into the crystal ball of transportation development in the United States.

The National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission: SAFETEA-LU, (a lovely acronym standing for Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: a Legacy for Users, othewise known as the transportation funding act passed in 2005) required the implementation of The National Surface Transportation Policy and Reveune Study Commission. They have released their report. The administration has declined to endorse it. Multiple people are evaluating its recommendations and the administration’s response. Apparently there were also some sections regarding Transit that were excised.

The highlights of the report: Transportation is underfunded by 60%. Raise federal gas taxes by $0.40 over five years. Personally, I think the administration is on the right track here. Continued dependence on fuel taxes is a no-win scenario because we want to reduce the amount of fuel (whatever it is) that is needed to get from A to B. This leaves transportation funding high and dry. Usage fees such as tolling, managed lanes, and pay-per-mile are the wave of the future. Correctly, I think.

Trans Texas Corridor Public Meetings: If you’re familiar with Texas’ proposed new system of highway/transit/rail/utility corridors, you’ll be happy to know that Public Meetings for the first section are under way. The Trans Texas Corridor is a system of highways separate from the existing Interstate Highway system, intended to move things at high speed from one point to another. They will not go through cities, like the Interstate system does.

I-35 Bridge Collapse Interim Finding: The NTSB has issued a statement about the I-35W bridge collapse in Minneapolis. Apparently, the Gusset plates were undersized, which may have contributed to the collapse.

From the Press Release:

“Although the Board’s investigation is still on-going and no determination of probable cause has been reached, interim findings in the investigation have revealed a safety issue that warrants attention,” said NTSB Chairman Mark V. Rosenker. “During the wreckage recovery, investigators discovered that gusset plates at eight different joint locations in the main center span were fractured. The Board, with assistance from the FHWA, conducted a thorough review of the design of the bridge, with an emphasis on the design of the gusset plates. This review discovered that the original design process of the I-35W bridge led to a serious error in sizing some of the gusset plates in the main truss.”

It’s my understanding that some of the Gusset plates on the I-35 bridge were found to be half as thick as they should have been. In this type of bridge, these are critical structural members. Here is a quick diagram of a Gusset plate:

Interstate 35 Bridge as Compared to State Budget: The Governor of Minnesota has released his recommendations for transportation funding for the next year. It looks like he’s asking for $2.1 billion in assorted funding. The new I-35 bridge has a budget allocation of $250 million, 100% of which is Federal Funding, not impacting the state budget. Nice bridge.

Kaid Benfield of the National Resources Defense Council has a posting about the recently passed U.S. energy bill, land use, carbon footprints, and policy. It’s worth a read if you believe (as I do) that the current U.S. transportation policy is fundamentally untenable in the long term. Change will come, whether we want it to or not, and the best way to slide into that change gracefully is to start planning for it now. Better yet, start the changing before it’s a panic attack with all of the monetary impacts those imply.

Internal Documents from MnDOT About I 35W Bridge Maintenance: The Star Tribune of Minneapolis/St. Paul is digging into the recent history of bridge maintenance activities and decisions.

China Trying Dictatorial Traffic Congestion Solutions: Want to cut traffic congestion?  Just ban 50% of the vehicles from the road.  It certainly cuts down on the need for driver incentives.  As it turns out, it might not make much difference.

Kerfuffle on the Zakim Bridge in Boston: Some of the plates that attach the cables on this cable-stayed bridge are a bit warped, raising questions about safety.

Urban Transportation Report Card: Streetsblog discusses the urban transportation report card, a listing of the carbon-friendliness of some American cities.

• Five Cities awarded Close to $900M: Five american cities have been awarded funds as a part of the US federal government’s Urban Partnership Program.  New York, Minneapolis, Seattle, San Francisco, and Miami have been awarded varying amounts of funds.
• Minneapolis is Respecting the Disaster Site: The site of the I-35W bridge collapse is being restricted from view as much as possible, in respect for the dead.
• Traffic Light of Death!: Any blog entry that pops into my feedreader with this title gets a look-see. The topic may not be wholly fascinating, but the prose that accompanies it definitely is.
• US DOT Not Committed to Bicycles: Malcomxpark reports that Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters does not feel that bicycles are transportation.  He links to another blog with transcripts of interviews with secretary Peters.  You won’t find me being the administration’s defender all that frequently, however Mary Peters seems to be a levelheaded middle-of-the-road Transportation Secretary.  The policies being criticized are rampant throughout the country, not only with this administration.  Americans love their cars and trucks and have not been culturally raised to respect the bicycle.  This attitude is reflected at every level of the transportation infrastructure process, from policy to planning to construction, including funding, which is the linchpin that everything turns on.  To have a bicycle-friendly nation, we need to work with everyone, not just rail at the administration.
• German Prognostication: German Autobahn traffic experts want to predict traffic jams a day in advance.  Sounds cool, I hope they manage it.