Talking Traffic

One of the more frustrating parts of my day job is when a project requires the calculation of a Benefit/Cost ratio. This ratio is simple in concept: add up all the financial benefits of a project including the projected reductions in congestion, crashes, etc. and divide it by the amortized total cost of the project. This is a tool for evaluating whether a project is worth building. For example, if I’m proposing a project that is going to cost $1 million but it only provides the benefit of $1/2 million than the B/C ratio is 0.5. We’re getting only a 50% return on our investment, therefore don’t build it! Easy, right? Maybe. Let’s talk about where the numbers come from.

Calculating the project cost is the easy part (easy, even if it’s occasionally inaccurate due to unforseen circumstances and rising material prices). Calculating the projected financial benefits of a project can be straightforward, too, if it’s intended as a congestion relief project; there is plenty of documentation concerning reductions in delay time vs. financial benefit. Things are a bit murkier when trying to assemble a financial benefit to projected reductions in collisions because it’s hard to say whether a reduction (or increase) in collision rate is due to a project or not. Lastly, it’s nearly impossible to calculate the benefit (or impact) of a road project on the surrounding business and homes. There are broad overarching assumptions, but they are at best a WAG¹. This is why I cringe every time I’m requested to include a B/C ratio on a project. On non-capacity projects (projects that aren’t adding roadway lanes) it’s very difficult to achieve a B/C ratio of greater than 1.0 which is the assumed benchmark when someone asks for that number.

The reason for all this ramp-up is because of a news report yesterday morning in Atlanta. The Georgia Dept. of Transportation is shutting down all constructions projects (with a few exceptions) within 5 miles of a shopping mall or other retail center from Thursday to Sunday to allow for the Sales Tax holiday that Georgia is having this weekend.

My question, and I admittedly have NO CLUE, is whether the B/C ratio for this proposed work stoppage is greater than 1.0? Sure, there will be less congestion during the weekend, but does this really improve the bottom line for the taxpayer? The contractors are going to figure the cost of a 4 day work stoppage into the project cost, so it might end up at the end that this Tax Holiday congestion relief program will actually cost the state, therefore the taxpayers, more than the congestion would have.

Unfortunately, you’d have to make so many assumptions and WAGs that it’s probably impossible to say with any certainty one way or the other. It’s an interesting thought experiment, though.

Today is the one year anniversary of the I-35W bridge collapse in Minnesota. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, check out the wikipedia article. Most of the relevant info is there.

The Interstate bridge collapsed during evening rush hour on August 1, 2007. Thirteen people died and approximately 100 were injured. The reason for the catastrophic failure of the bridge has not been determined precisely, but early findings by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) pointed at an original design flaw in the Gusset Plates (details here).

This tragedy has underscored a problem that the U.S. is facing: aging infrastructure requires maintenance or replacement. According to the American Society of Civil Engineers’ Infrastructure Report Card, the price of maintaining and upgrading the United States public infrastructure (roads, bridges, airports, utlilities, harbors, buildings and everything else) at an adequate level is approximately $1.7 trillion over five years (that’s $340 billion annually). Without a continued investment you run into issues such as degrading roadways, leaking sewage systems, inadequate water supplies, congested airports, etc. It is a fact that this nation continues to grow and the infrastructure representing its nerves and veins must grow with it. Look at Singapore and Manila. Those two cities are so overwhelmed by traffic congestion (to take only one example from transportation) that almost all deliveries from the ports occur at night; the trucks simply cannot move during the day. I’d hate to see that happen to Baltimore, or Savannah, or Long Beach.

$340 billion is a very big number, but let’s remember that Congress fell all over itself to send $200 million to Minnesota to replace the I-35W bridge. If they can snap-count a number that big, I think it’s reasonable to find some additional funding on an annual basis to assist the states in replacing and maintaining the existing infrastructure. 27% of the nation’s bridges are currently rated as strucutrally deficient as of 2005 (which does not mean in imminent danger of collapse, so don’t worry too much) which is an improvement from several years previously, but is too high. Unfortunately, the only way to improve that number is through funding because bridges need constant maintenance and eventual replacement to keep up with the growing traffic demand.

Do I have a proposed solution? I do not. I am not a finance geek or a politician. I, along with many others in my field, see a looming problem which if unaddressed will only lead to bigger problems in the future.

So, remember the I-35W collapse. While it apparently wasn’t directly caused by insufficient funding for maintenance, it is a bellwhether for problems to come.

Housing & Transportation Costs in your Neighborhood: If you live in a metropolitan area, it’s possible that your town is on this survey of transportation & housing costs by median income. Check it out.

A Blow for Gender Equality: Sweden introduces a new walking-woman symbol to optionally replace the walking-man at pedestrian signals.

UK Stepping on Lollipop Violators: I’d never heard the term ‘lollipop’ as it’s applied in this article about Lollipop Road Rage.

“STOP! In the name of Love”: Stop sign accoutrements to increase awareness. FHWA says, “Nuh uh.”

Hold the Presses! US Trans Sec has a Blog!: US Transportation Secretary Mary Peters announced that she has a blog now! Call my cynical, but how much “blogging” is really done by the top politicians, rather than their staffers. I may be giving Secretary Peters short shrift here, but I think my point is valid.

Valley Girl Hates Freeways: An LA Blogger discusses the freeway culture.

Texas is Cutting its Highway Maintenance: Through policy decisions, the Texas Department of Transportation is cutting $4.9 Billion from it’s next 10 years of maintenance. Unfortunately, I don’t know what that equates to in terms of percentage per year.

Transportation Improvements due to World Sports: Everyone knows that Beijing is spending uberbucks to get ready for the Olympics. Did you know that Germany spend $15 billion for the World Cup in 2006, and Brazil is building new infrastructure for the 2010 Cup?

Topics: Red Light Enforcement, Red Light Running, Clearance Intervals

 Episode 17 - Red Light Enforcement, Red Light Running, Clearance Intervals [10:35m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Topics: Project Development Process

 Episode 16 - Project Development Process [14:27m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Topics: Safe Routes to School

 Episode 13 - Safe Routes to School [9:17m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Anti-Trust in the Transportation Sector?: If you’re not a net junky like me (and if you weren’t, would you be reading this?) then you might not have heard of Traffic.com, the company responsible for the vast proliferation of Intelligent Transportation Infrastructure throughout some of the nation’s major metro areas. Traffic.com is contracted by these localites under a program called the Transportation Technology Innovation and Demonstration program, a federal earmark that incentivises the placement of radar speed detectors and traffic counters. This is where the various traffic feeds for your cell phone come from. Jerry Werner, formerly of the National Transportation Operations Coalition sent me an email making the case that the contracts awarded to Traffic.com are not in accordance with law; that they are specifically targeted to Traffic.com rather than being competitive as the most recent Highway Act requires. See his information at: The U.S. TTID Program: When Politics, Competition, and the Public Interest Collide and Transportation Technology Innovation and Demonstration Program (TTID): What the Agreements Signed by State and Local Transportation Agencies Show.

Connecticut Looking at Speed Cameras on I-95: They do this in Britain, and some places in the U.S., automating speed enforcement on a major highway. My opinion? This makes sense, but only if the speed is set legitimately. If it’s an arbitrarily low speed, this would be an inappropriate enforcement scheme.

Cash Flow Issues in Texas DOT: Apparently, the lack of funding is hitting even states like Texas, with their massive transportation budget.

Speaking of Politics: Voting against party direction will get you in trouble. This is particularly interesting to me because I work around here.

DATA: The Duluth (MN) Area Trail Alliance: Check out their website.

Member of the Surface Transportation Revenue and Study Commission Speaks Out: Paul Weyrich, a member of the Surface Transportation Revenue and Study Commission, objects to the media coverage of the commission’s recent report (see Traffic Tidbits of 22 Jan 08). He feels that too much emphasis on just one alternative, the fuel tax rise, is drowning out the other good work the commission has completed. I’ll be honest here. I haven’t read the report yet. I was depending on media feeds. I’m going to read it today, though.

I-35 W Bridge Collapse: The fact that the preliminary findings of the NTSB are pointing at design flaws rather than maintenance failure for the I-35W Bridge collapse in 2007 is causing ruffled political feathers.

Ship Obsolescence: The United States maintains a strategic reserve of transport ships in case national emergencies call for bulk carriers. Some of these ships are old, and some are older. When they outlive their operational usefulness, they are broken up for recycling. The gov’t is making some good money in the business right now.

I-95 Going All Data, All the Time: Interstate 95 is one of the nation’s most congested corridors, being hugely important for moving people and goods north and south along the east coast. A new intiative, to provide realtime data to travelers, is under way. Having experienced I-95 in the northeast during some seriously congested times, I would appreciate better information with which to make decisions, for my own use.

Kaid Benfield of the National Resources Defense Council has a posting about the recently passed U.S. energy bill, land use, carbon footprints, and policy. It’s worth a read if you believe (as I do) that the current U.S. transportation policy is fundamentally untenable in the long term. Change will come, whether we want it to or not, and the best way to slide into that change gracefully is to start planning for it now. Better yet, start the changing before it’s a panic attack with all of the monetary impacts those imply.